The end of the beginning
The US credit crisis has most likely reached the end of the beginning. The next phase of this is likely to be the negative macro-economic implications on the US economy, led by far tighter lending standards and the lack of pass-through of US Federal Reserve easing onto consumers. We still characterise the outlook for foreign exchange as being split between the second quarter, where we expect more broad USD weakness, and the second half, where we expect some USD recovery as the rest of the world
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